CODA A favorite against the power of the dog

Credit:

FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: CODA cast and filmmakers, nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees and Ratings

Candidate odds Implied probability
CODA -230 69.70%
The power of the dog +220 31.25%
The lost girl +500 16.67%
drive my car +1600 5.88%
Dunes +2400 4%
Oscar odds for Best Adapted Screenplay nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26.

Best Fit Scenario Predictions

Collin Whitchurch: The WGAs and BAFTAs agreed here, both awarding their first awards to CODA. So, it’s a bit surprising to see this movie with only a slim lead in the betting odds.

The WGAs and BAFTAs have agreed on Best Adapted Screenplay nine times since 2000, and the only time they incorrectly predicted the Oscar was in 2009, when Precious beat Up In The Air ( considered one of the biggest Oscar upsets in recent history).

You could bet on another shakeup here, but I don’t see the value in any of the movies that follow CODA. I would bet winning at -250.

Take: CODA-140
Deserve to win: drive my car

Collin Wilson: There are no long-term trends for this category, which doesn’t always win Best Picture. Last year, The Father beat Nomadland as previous winners such as Jojo Rabbit and BlackKkKlansman weren’t close to winning Best Picture. The trend in recent years is that more and more non-fiction films are being nominated and winning.

Leaders in the ratings table are two films that are also battling for Best Picture. With chances of switching between CODA and The Power of the Dog, Netflix’s The Lost Daughter captured the attention of many critics with first and second place votes.

With over 11% of those reviewers choosing The Lost Daughter, the correct ratings are closer to +770. As the top two films go head-to-head, consider placing a small bet on which film captured the attention of the voting base.

Take: The Lost Girl +800


More predictions for the Oscars 2022

  • A guide to betting on each category: Editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on each category, including those worth betting against to pass.
  • Golden Derby Experts vs Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions from Gold Derby experts and editors to the odds to identify potential values.
  • 5 other best bets: Senior Betting Analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for the two supporting actor awards, as well as Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.

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