Oscars 2022: Best Original Screenplay Predictions

Authors often have the creative edge when it comes to getting Academy credit for their vision.

Academy voters give creators extra points to control their visions; which gives the writers the edge in the race for the best original screenplay.

Getting a boost in 2021 is any movie that debuted in front of a real audience and live at a film festival like Cannes. This is where triple screenplay nominee Wes Anderson (“The Royal Tenenbaums”, “Moonrise Kingdom”, “Grand Budapest Hotel”) made his debut with his valentine omnibus for The New Yorker, “The French Dispatch” ( Searchlight), who also played the Fall Circuit, and writer-director Julia Ducourneau won the Palme d’Or for the French Oscar submission “Titane” (Neon), a family genre and genre drama, which has also won the Toronto Midnight Madness Award.

Voters in the writers’ branch often seek their candidates abroad. Two-time Oscar winner Asghar Farhadi presented his Iranian family drama “A Hero” (Amazon) in Cannes, while Oscar winner Pedro Almodóvar (“Talk to Her”) wowed the fall festival circuit with “Parallel Mothers ”(Sony Pictures Classics), starring muse and Oscar winner Penelope Cruz (“ Vicky Cristina Barcelona ”) as a woman whose baby is traded at birth with a younger mother (Milena Smit), with whom she befriends.

“King Richard”, written by Zach Baylin, the true story of Compton native Richard Williams (Will Smith), who prepared his daughters Venus and Serena (Saniyya Sidney and Demi Singleton) to become superstars also appeared during fall festivals.

During the pandemic, Kenneth Branagh wrote and filmed a personal story, “Belfast” (Focus Features) which won the Audience Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, often a harbinger of a Best Picture nominee. Set in 1969, the film stars Jude Hill as nine-year-old Branagh and Jamie Dornan and Caitriona Balfe as his parents. “Belfast” could finally win the Oscar from Branagh. He’s late after five nominations – for directing and starring in “Henry V”, starring in “My Week with Marilyn”, adapted “Hamlet” and directing the short film “Swan Song”.

Oscar nominee Steven Knight (“Dirty Pretty Things”) collaborated with director Pablo Larrain on the hit festival “Spencer” (Neon), a surreal take on the royal Christmas scenes, starring Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana in distress.

This fall, Oscar-winning screenwriter Aaron Sorkin (“The Social Network”) follows up his Oscar-nominated film “The Trial of the Chicago 7” with “Being the Ricardos” (December 10, Amazon), which follows husband and wife woman Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz (Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem) “I Love Lucy” team during an eventful week in Hollywood.

Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”

Neon

The candidates are listed in alphabetical order. No movie will be considered a favorite if I haven’t seen it.

Precursors
Pedro Almodovar (“Parallel mothers”)
Wes Anderson (“The French Dispatch”)
Zach Baylin (“” King Richard “)
Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
Steven Knight (“Spencer”)

Candidates
Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”)
Asghar Farhadi (“A hero”)
Adam McKay and David Sirota (“Don’t Look Upward”)
Aaron Sorkin (“Being the Ricardos”)

Long shots
Julia Ducournau “Titanium”
Fran Kranz (“Mass”)
Mike Mills (“Come on, come on”)
Paul Schrader (“The Card Counter”)
Paolo Sorrentino (“The Hand of God”)

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