The 2022 awards season is coming to an end. The 94th Academy Awards are set to take place on March 27 and will reward the biggest films of the year. Some nominations came as a shock, while others were guaranteed locks. And among those nominees, a few are virtually guaranteed to win.
The GoldDerby website is great at predicting the Oscars outcome as there is extensive research on their odds. Their Best Screenplay categories are a relatively tight race, although only certain films are in the running for the prize. Here are the odds of advancing in Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay categories.
Best Original Screenplay
Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier – The worst person in the world (2021)
As for Best Original Screenplay, the least likely winner is The worst person in the world. Released in his native Norway as Verdens verste menneske, The worst person in the world was written by collaborators Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier. Unfortunately, their chances of winning are extremely low.
In fact, GoldDerby doesn’t even list the film in its Best Original Screenplay category, so it’s unlikely to win. During the 2022 awards season, The worst person in the world has yet to win a single award for its screenplay.
Zach Baylin – King Richard (2021)
While undoubtedly one of the best biopics of 2021, King Richard is unlikely to win Best Original Screenplay. The film is best known for its acting, and Will Smith looks like a lock for Best Actor. His script, on the other hand, is not as well seen.
He’s been somewhat criticized for his adherence to sports biographical tropes, and he’s earned just seven nominations throughout the 2022 awards season. King Richard will likely walk away with at least one prize, but it won’t be for Best Original Screenplay.
Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up (2021)
Don’t look up is the dark horse of this awards season. While the Netflix comedy had hard-hitting quotes, the film wasn’t highly rated and only got 56% on Rotten Tomatoes. Its script was also criticized, with many finding it too condescending, on the nose and obnoxious.
Either way, it earned a nomination for Best Original Screenplay, though it’s unlikely to win. While currently sitting in third place in the ratings, he is a distant third. Although the film has been praised for its message, it’s unlikely to win a major Oscar this year, let alone Best Original Screenplay.
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (2021)
It’s a tight race for best original screenplay, and Belfast is currently the close runner-up. A semi-autobiographical film by writer-director Kenneth Branagh, Belfast is a big favorite at the 94th Academy Awards. The film earned 131 nominations and 32 wins this awards season.
It also won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globe Awards, which greatly increased its chances of winning the Oscar. But like now, he is right behind the favorite and the predicted winner.
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (2021)
The favorite for this year’s Best Original Screenplay award is Paul Thomas Anderson Licorice Pizza. He currently has a 17/5 chance of winning and is the first choice to win the major prize. The film received 35 wins throughout the 2022 awards season, including Best Screenplay from the New York Film Critics Circle.
If it was to win, Licorice Pizza would prove Anderson’s first win for Best Original Screenplay. This is his fifth nomination in a screenplay category, the others being boogie nights, Magnolia, there will be bloodand inherent vice.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe – Drive My Car (2021)
A Japanese drama, drive my car is adapted from a short story from Haruki Murakami’s collection men without women. It’s currently up for Best Adapted Screenplay, but according to GoldDerby, it’s the least likely to win. This, despite the screenplay receiving numerous wins throughout the awards season, including Best Screenplay at the Cannes Film Festival.
It’s definitely one of the best international movies of 2021, but like the Norwegian The worst person in the worldit is unlikely to win a screenplay award at the 94th Academy Awards.
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve & Eric Roth – Dune (2021)
Although we still have questions for part two, Dunes was a great standalone film that was widely acclaimed. It is also one of the standout films at the 94th Academy Awards, earning ten nominations. However, almost all of these are (understandably) in the technical categories.
However, it did earn a few “serious” nominations, and one of them is Best Adapted Screenplay. However, according to GoldDerby, he is highly unlikely to win and barely overtake drive my car in the odds.
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Girl (2021)
Based on the novel of the same name by Elena Ferrante, The lost girl was written and directed by popular actress Maggie Gyllenhaal. This is actually Gyllenhaal’s feature debut as a writer and director, and what a start it was. The film has consistently earned high marks from critics and is universally hailed as one of the best films of 2021.
Its screenplay also received huge praise, including the Golden Osella for Best Screenplay at the Venice International Film Festival. She and second place are virtually neck and neck in terms of odds, with The lost girl currently holds 19/5.
Sian Heder – CODA (2021)
Meaning “child of deaf adults”, CODA features Emilia Jones as the titular CODA. The film was adapted from a French comedy titled The Aries Family. CODA earned just four nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay, and it’s one of the film’s three Oscar nominations (the others being Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor).
Despite the lack of applications, CODA is almost related to The lost girl in joint second and third place in the odds. Either way, both are highly unlikely to win, as there is a formidable favorite.
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (2021)
When it comes to Best Adapted Screenplay, there is one heavy favorite, and that’s Jane Campion. Almost everyone, including GoldDerby, agrees that Campion will win for The power of the dog. Adapted from the novel of the same name by Thomas Savage, The power of doingg has been the overwhelming favorite throughout the 2022 awards season.
To date, he has won 210 wins and 265 other nominations. It’s a clear favorite for Best Adapted Screenplay, with GoldDerby experts currently giving odds of 10/3.
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